Tool
EV Calculator
Calculate the expected value of any bet to determine if it is profitable long-term.
+EV
Expected Value+$5.00EV per Dollar
+5.00%Edge
+2.62%Long-Term ProjectionOver 100 bets of $100, you would expect to profit approximately $500.00.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does +EV actually mean?
Positive expected value means that, repeated thousands of times, the bet would make money on average. A +5% EV bet pays back $1.05 per dollar wagered over the long run.
How big does my edge need to be?
At least 2-3% after vig to be meaningful. Anything smaller gets eaten by variance over a typical bettor's volume. Sharp pros target 4%+ on individual bets.
How do I estimate true probability?
Use no-vig closing lines from sharp books (Pinnacle, Circa) as a proxy for fair probability. Anything you'd take above that line is +EV.
Why does EV matter more than win rate?
Win rate alone ignores price. Hitting 60% at -200 odds (~67% breakeven) is a long-term loser. Hitting 50% at +120 (~45% breakeven) is a long-term winner.